Wednesday, April 13, 2016

#0 Central Banks Are Printing to Avert a Global Meltdown – as Gold Miners Start to ‘Melt Up’

Dollar Vigilante Blog

This is going to be another exposé of that “you know nothing, John Snow” kind of ignorance that proliferates in the “financial press.” Berwick's remarks in blue, mine in black:

April 13, 2016 / Jeff Berwick

Yesterday we went over the state of the world and if you read the article you’ll find it’s not good. In fact, it’s downright disastrous. There are defaults and impending collapses all over the place, from China to Europe to South America and beyond.

What did the stock market do the very next morning? It went up 160 points for some reason.

Well, if you don't know, you should figure it out. The “plunge protection team” is always at work now, pumping unimaginable amounts of THEIR money into THEIR balloon corporate capitalist system to keep it afloat, if nothing more than to convince the elites themselves that they have “wealth,” when in fact in their portfolios they have nothing but virtual wealth. All the real wealth capable of producing a steady predictable monthly income, was all stolen from most people long ago. 

So let me try again to expose the reality of what’s happening. And then I’ll try to provide some actions you can take from an investment and savings standpoint. Hey, no matter how bad it is, someone is always making a profit somewhere. It might as well be us. In fact it will be us. The market is turning fast now, and we’re turning with it.

... and more fools are separated from THEIR money, the little they actually have to mess around gaming in THEIR rigged and rotten system, including precious metals. The psychopath induces the narcissist into that “you follow my advice I can make you rich” baloney and win or lose, they still sold subscriptions. 

News first. While the market was climbing some 160 points, the Atlanta Fed continued to downgrade the US economy. Since beginning the year with an announcement that GDP growth for the first quarter of 2016 would be above 1%, and calling for growth as high as 2.6% as recently as February, the Atlanta Fed has changed course immensely since March 15 and has called for growth estimates of .7%, .4%, and now .1% respectively since that date.

That’s just shy of a recession and I don’t believe the number anyway. Call the US’s economic condition whatever you want. I call it a depression, one that’s been taking place since at least 2008 and papered over with 8 years of 0% interest rates and waves of money printing that they are almost becoming like the Rocky movies. QE1… QE2… QE3. And QE4 is coming, but likely not until a few thousand points get shaved off the Dow in quick fashion… and even then the market will continue to drop as more people begin to realize what’s going on and begin to scramble out of stocks that are valued based upon a good economy.

... and then so what about gold mining stocks that are majority owned by the elites anyway? You'll see a chart farther down. That shows a “frying pan” pattern, where stocks were stuck along a bottom line of support for a time and then jump back to where they were when the pattern began. This is NOT an advisable place to trade into these stocks. Again, since real wealth is income by the month, quarter and year, when a stock shows a performance of rising revenue over many quarters without it's stock moving, that's the time to buy in.

I know a few things about this business too, all of which confirm our narrower view of wealth that it must produce an income or it's not wealth. But this is all capitalism and everyone who reads and understands capitalism should run not walk away from such games. Recall that I said (and others have supplied the proof so I wont bother to reiterate that here, you do your own research) that socialism is the evil sister of capitalism. It makes me wonder at the integrity of those who constantly complain about the various obvious socialist approaches to economic problems and still play the stock market (or the bond market).

Listen, if you play THEIR games, don't complain about THEIR socialism. It makes you look like an idiot (because you in fact are one since you probably don't know any better). Remember, whatever it is, if it's not on THEIR agenda, they don't even consider it of any consequence whatever. You play in their markets gaming your hard earned winnings from working for THEIR money and complain about the poor getting freebies? If you don't get it that socialism is tied directly to the stock market and yes even to gold itself, then ... “you know nothing, John Snow” and it would serve you better to find out. 

Then there’s the IMF. The IMF came out once again and admitted it had been too optimistic. In its just released quarterly World Economic Outlook report, the agency chopped its growth forecast by another 0.2% for 2016, down to 3.2%. At one point, the IMF was forecasting 4.0% GDP growth in 2016. It doesn’t matter though, GDP numbers have no bearing on the growth of an economy despite what everyone tells you. And those numbers are SO FAR out of whack with the reality on the ground in almost every country in the world it is laughable.

Don't you find it interesting for people to follow numbers from these sources even though they don't believe they are telling the truth? Who is fooling who here?

And yesterday, while the US market was climbing, Italian banks went limit down. They’re broke and so is the government. Over the past 12 months, the Italian market is down by 1/3 and the banks are doing so badly that they can’t raise more equity – not in Italy, not anywhere. The government has had to engineer a series of bailouts. And what was the final bailout? It was for a grand total of euro 5 billion – a ridiculous amount given that bad bank loans total something like euro 360 billion — and one bank alone has something like euro 80 billion in non-performing loans. 

So again, who is bullshitting who here? Recall please that any money in any of THEIR banks is THEIRS and any money you have in your possession that's THEIRS may at any time also be considered THEIRS. Intellectual property/copyright law and recent acts of Congress enable all of this, which is another reason NOT to have any of THEIR money on account in any of our independent exchanges (IEs). Under THEIR rules (not yours or mine) they may deem any of THEIR money on our premises to be THEIRS and that's another reason from the very beginning we knew we would not base any of our money on a direct exchange in dollars (or anything else) except precious metals. We know full well that there are nit wits like this guy out there who still “believe” in the myth of “backing” for money and “intrinsic value of money” which is all more clowns games to fool the intended victim. Think this chicanery started just yesterday and it was anything better within living memory? You better wake up. This has been going on for thousands of years. 

What say you then of a proposed monetary system that does not replace THEIR money, but stands alongside and separate from it? Your own rightful money in which more and more local business is done and eventually when THEIR system falls, yours will be left standing and will have preserved far more wealth and everything connected with it through free enterprise and the will of our members than anything THEY have to offer us to replace THEIR failure, which hasn't happened yet, but is inevitable and long overdue. 

Italy can’t print. Only the European Central Bank can print – and it won’t print nearly enough to debase the Italian currency to a point where those loans are manageable… at least not in time to salvage the ban.

And Italy’s problem is Greece’s problem, is Ireland’s problem – and who knows how many other countries as well. Remember, not long ago we quoted top Bank for International Settlement’s executive William White who made headlines in Davos with his blunt assessment of the world’s financial condition? 

The situation is worse than it was in 2007. Our macroeconomic ammunition to fight downturns is essentially all used up … Emerging markets were part of the solution after the Lehman crisis. Now they are part of the problem, too … Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such levels in every part of the world that they have become a potent cause for mischief,” he said. “It will become obvious in the next recession that many of these debts will never be serviced or repaid, and this will be uncomfortable for a lot of people who think they own assets that are worth something. The only question is whether we are able to look reality in the eye and face what is coming in an orderly fashion, or whether it will be disorderly. Debt jubilees have been going on for 5,000 years, as far back as the Sumerians”

White knows what’s going on. Bank debt is a worldwide problem. Actually it’s a catastrophe waiting to happen… planned to happen… or even worse, a catastrophe that IS happening.

Too much debt owed for money lent at interest, all of which actually removes more circulating money from the money supply with every loan. What was the money spent for? What happens when you have a country that imports more than it exports and where all the “mom and pop” businesses are driven out by corporations and capitalism so that few work and more are on the socialist dole? Your country is a basket case thanks to the capitalists whose banks are now failing. In our system if a money lender is bust, the business folds and that's it. There is no tidal effect as there is in THEIR system because the money function and transaction clearing functions are separate from each other, by design. After all, if we advocate a new monetary system, shouldn't it be significantly better than anything else out there? Ours is. 

There’s plenty of speculation that the recent hush-hush meeting between Obama, Yellen and smilin’ Joe Biden was all about bank debt as well, specifically German bank debt.

The idea is that Wall Street has already been propping up Deutsche Bank, which despite its size and reputation must now be known mostly for its recklessness. With interests in every corner of the globe, Deutsche Bank has been melting down regularly. [What's that supposed to mean? Sounds interesting anyway.] It’s got plenty of unsecured loans to companies like Volkswagen, for instance and its stock price is a significant underperformer for the sector.

Why would anyone care except a capitalist and his “I want to be rich or stay rich” investor?

Now it’s already been reported that Deutsche Bank was negotiating with Goldman and JP Morgan on selling $1.1 billion gross “notional” distressed credit default swaps (LINK). And the speculation is that part of the high-level White House conversation concerned a further bailout of Deutsche Bank, perhaps via Goldman and Morgan, with the Fed securing the purchases in some way. If this sounds a lot like the plot for The Big Short, it’s because it is.

This kind of stuff happens all the time. It's called international settlements and it's a desk within the Federal Reserve and they have similar desks in every central bank. If you're playing a time advantage against your customers/prey, then you have to collude with one another to keep each other's ponzi game going or else the whole thing starts a chain reaction that leads to destruction. And the worst casualty of it all is public confidence. After 1929 it took until really the 1960's before investing in stocks and bonds was anything any middle class or lower class person thought of doing for a living. Come to think of it, it's still a pretty lousy pursuit as life pursuits go.

But, the idea here is that the West’s financial system is so fragile at this point that any single blow could prove devastating and that the Fed, among other prominent central banks, stands ready to provide the necessary liquidity. This liquidity of course will extend far beyond Deutsche Bank. As we’ve speculated before, various forms of quantitative easing are with us to stay, at least for as long as the powers-that-be want to prop up this collapsing system. How long that might be for is difficult to say. Remember the goal is ultimately to collapse what remains of economic health worldwide. The idea is to usher in another system, a global one, and this system has to break down irretrievably first.

Aren't they forgetting one very big point? Will the people in their tens of million (being conservative here) stand for any more of THEM or THEIR money or THEIR banks? Understood? There is the sense that THEY will use some kind of military FORCE to remain in power, but in what are those police paid? THEIR money? Can you even trust or guard someone who you know damn well doesn't give a shit about you? Then THEY have you gun down some people because THEY said it's OK? We already know some of our leaders have already said as much. It kind of makes one not care a lot about certain things anymore that are really out of one's control and none of one's concern.

Some people are waking up and are beginning to understand how badly warped their public school or even private school version of history was, that is, if they even bothered to pay attention. They're beginning to trace the origins of money and banking back into ancient times when the military industrial banking complex was born in ancient Babylon and is now resurrected. But it too will pass and what then of THEIR brands of money from the central bank issued (with or without interest still a violation of our right to issue our own money) to those pieces of gold and silver with various tyrants' heads stamped on them?

It may well be done via debasement rather than catastrophic market breaks, though we’ll surely have our fill of those. But ultimately, debasement can lead to the same place – a system that cannot be salvaged. 

So, who cares about it as long as you buy into the market and buy those recommended gold mining stocks? This is the appeal to the narcissist by the poacher who has no other intent but to get the narcissist's money. I've seen it over and over again in the real world.  

But debasement has one silver lining, pun intended, for those of us who are watching the current carnage aghast. And that has to do with the escalating price of gold relative to the dollar and the advance, as well, of mining stocks.

Here at TDV, we’ve already experienced the first flush of the advance of [gold and silver] mining stocks after over a decade of under-performance. Gold is up recently by some 30 percent and it is very possible that a good deal of this rise has to do with the perception that central banks are going to have to debase like crazy to support what’s left of the system’s solvency. Our own gold portfolio, managed by our resident genius Ed Bugos, is up over 50 percent in the past months. And some of Ed’s individual mining picks are up by nearly 200 percent in little more than a month.

Just look at this chart of the major gold miners.

Central Banks Are Printing to Avert a Global Meltdown - as Gold Miners Start to Melt Up - HUI - The Dollar Vigilante
They are up 100% in the last three months. Imagine if the tech sector, as measured by the Nasdaq was up 100% in the last 3 months. Or if the Dow rose 17,000 points since the start of the year. The headlines would be blasting so loud you wouldn’t be able to hear yourself think.

But, gold stocks rose 100% in the last three months? Crickets. That’s because they don’t want people to know. [Direct appeal to the narcissists out there that they're getting inside information, from some guy named Bugos? Genius? Experience is what it takes and some other clear signals to spot true momentum plays. But again boys and girls it's all capitalism and it's all at the general expense of the entire economy which performs a “black hole” function of sucking all available returns form activity (income) toward them. None of these people has in any way earned your trust.] They might start asking silly questions like, “Why are gold stocks rising so much, so quickly?” The answer to that gets very uncomfortable for Janet Yellen. As for the metals themselves, gold jumped 16.4% in the first three months of 2016, its strongest quarterly showing since the third quarter of 1986.

We have of course watched this too. We use it to measure what the purchasing power of our Valun costs relative to today's money. We think there's a better possibility for gold to crash than to explode and the reason is that there is actually more gold sitting out there in hiding that's THEIRS that they can produce and use to topple the price anytime they want. Oh, they're always greedy for more, as from Libya or Iraq, or anywhere else it might be in easy enough reach. When gold falls below the cost of mining it, mines close and their stocks crash. I told you before that the “frying pan” chart pattern is well known. I explained why now is probably NOT the right time to buy into these stocks. I probably have twice the actual experience this guy has (in investment research I stand on the shoulders of real giants in the field) and it still doesn't matter. It's all THEIR money, not yours or mine.

It’s perfectly possible that central bank money printing can continue at least in the short term to salvage banks and lift markets (although I highly doubt it and I’ll be explaining to subscribers this week why). [He's fishing for some of THEIR money from you, same as any other “market maker” out there, so how much is it going to end if this guy is selling subscripts to get people to throw more of THEIR money that you happen to be holding right now back into THEIR market?] But, if the markets rise due to more money printing, this time metals and mining stocks may come along for the ride. [Of course they will as a general inflation raises all boats] If you want to track Ed’s successful picks and other TDV investment suggestions, please subscribe to our newsletter HERE  [I obliged by providing the link but I can't recommend what he's selling, because he isn't awake enough to know that what he's dabbling in is THEIR system and THEIR capitalism which benefits absolutely no one but the elites. Until he does, I expect he'll be miserable. Most stock jobbers are.] 

Of if you’d prefer to watch a series of video presentations from people like Ed Bugos on not only why to invest in this sector but what to invest in, this video library is a must-see (click here to view). [We'll again oblige without recommending what cannot be recommended.]

When the miners do take off in earnest, they’re going to move up spectacularly. Call it a “melt up”… And we won’t miss a minute of it – and neither will our subscribers.

Jeff Berwick

Fine. Now I'd like you to observe all the tags this guy uses as tip offs to where he's coming from:

Anarcho-Capitalist - Still a capitalist because he believes that corporate finance and trading fictitious pieces of legal fictions is better than doing any real work. He hasn't a clue about the difference between capitalism and free enterprise and has fallen for the subterfuge that they are the same thing. An anarchist? That's someone who doesn't believe in a ruling class. So how many of us are Anarcho-Free Enterprisers? 

Libertarian - Are they shills for the fake “Austrian” alternative which is nothing but a “gold standard” with more restrained banking practises on the same model used now? I don't know, but really I think they have been taken in by the elites to do some of their work for them whether they know it or not, because their solutions is directly in line with the bankers' dialectic: either their credit or their gold!

Freedom fighter against mankind’s two biggest enemies, the State and the Central Banks – No Jeff, you are clearly not. Facts are, you know next to nothing about freedom and you know nothing about money. I expect you to read this blog through thoroughly before I ever hear from you. Understood? 

Jeff Berwick is the founder of The Dollar Vigilante, CEO of TDV Media & Services and host of the popular video podcast, Anarchast. Jeff is a prominent speaker at many of the world’s freedom, investment and gold conferences including his own, Anarchapulco, as well as regularly in the media including CNBC, CNN and Fox Business.

So you see where he has aligned himself. Hope he enjoys the company he keeps.

[14 April, 2016: So Mr. Burton, would it be fair to say you were a defector from the insiders? Would you be a whistle blower? Sue NH

I have never been an “insider,” although I have worked for those who were as close as it gets without being one of them. The farther up the ladder of success in this system one gets, the smellier it gets. The whole system has its fair share of whistle blowers, certainly enough to help inform everyone who is paying attention out there. One of the best out there is Richard Grove. His Peace Revolution podcast series provides information that everyone needs to know and understand. It begins here.]

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